Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Font

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Aug 05, 2023 Past Nashville, Tennessee , U.S. U S Total Weight 2239.449
Channels Engaged
115
Predictions Logged
988
Value Picks Flagged
317
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 988 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 115 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 317 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.45 Jeremiah Wells ROI 1.15x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Carlston Harris vs Jeremiah Wells 1.15x ROI
Jeremiah Wells weighted 1.45 Market 1.84 Crowd 1.53
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Carlston Harris vs Jeremiah Wells 0.81x ROI
Carlston Harris weighted 3.24 Market 2.0 Crowd 2.9
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Billy Quarantillo vs Damon Jackson 0.87x ROI
Damon Jackson weighted 2.12 Market 1.65 Crowd 2.3
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Tatiana Suarez vs Jéssica Andrade 0.89x ROI
Jéssica Andrade weighted 6.72 Market 3.87 Crowd 5.75
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 58.3%
Pure crowd 58.3%
Market favourite 58.3%

Cory Sandhagen vs Rob Font

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 437.57
ROI Momentum -2.22
Underdog Specialist 3.46
Favorite Reliability 166.71
Weight-Class Ace 17.53
Regional Familiarity 105.9
Value Pick Signal 158.9
Sample Size Confidence 363.6

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.