Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Aug 12, 2023 Past Las Vegas, Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 2083.83
Channels Engaged
93
Predictions Logged
838
Value Picks Flagged
254
Fight Slots
13
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 838 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 93 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 254 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.27 Martin Buday ROI 1.11x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Martin Buday vs Josh Parisian 1.11x ROI
Martin Buday weighted 1.27 Market 1.48 Crowd 1.32
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Martin Buday vs Josh Parisian 0.84x ROI
Josh Parisian weighted 4.69 Market 2.68 Crowd 4.17
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Khalil Rountree Jr. vs Chris Daukaus 0.86x ROI
Chris Daukaus weighted 3.77 Market 2.47 Crowd 3.67
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Terrance McKinney vs Mike Breeden 0.86x ROI
Mike Breeden weighted 5.63 Market 3.17 Crowd 5.29
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 13
Weighted model 76.9%
Pure crowd 84.6%
Market favourite 76.9%

Vicente Luque vs Rafael dos Anjos

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 442.81
ROI Momentum 0.55
Underdog Specialist 5.92
Favorite Reliability 188.87
Weight-Class Ace 18.98
Regional Familiarity 92.55
Value Pick Signal 127.75
Sample Size Confidence 368.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.