Event Selector

UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Aug 19, 2023 Past Boston , Massachusetts , U.S. U S Total Weight 982.196
Channels Engaged
47
Predictions Logged
370
Value Picks Flagged
126
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 370 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 47 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 126 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.38 Karine Silva ROI 1.14x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Karine Silva vs Maryna Moroz 1.14x ROI
Karine Silva weighted 1.38 Market 1.71 Crowd 1.4
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Mario Bautista vs Da'Mon Blackshear 1.11x ROI
Da'Mon Blackshear weighted 2.11 Market 2.75 Crowd 1.78
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Karine Silva vs Maryna Moroz 0.81x ROI
Maryna Moroz weighted 3.63 Market 2.16 Crowd 3.5
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Mario Bautista vs Da'Mon Blackshear 0.83x ROI
Mario Bautista weighted 1.9 Market 1.45 Crowd 2.29
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Sean O'Malley vs Aljamain Sterling 0.9x ROI
Aljamain Sterling weighted 1.62 Market 1.4 Crowd 1.64
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 83.3%
Pure crowd 75.0%
Market favourite 66.7%

Sean O'Malley vs Aljamain Sterling

Market Snapshot

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Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 232.05
ROI Momentum -3.27
Underdog Specialist -3.11
Favorite Reliability 80.51
Weight-Class Ace 12.87
Regional Familiarity 42.9
Value Pick Signal 57.05
Sample Size Confidence 193.2

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.