Event Selector

UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Sep 10, 2023 Past Sydney , Australia Australia Total Weight 2353.841
Channels Engaged
155
Predictions Logged
1033
Value Picks Flagged
269
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 1033 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 155 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 269 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 2.88 Sean Strickland ROI 1.18x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Sean Strickland vs Israel Adesanya 1.18x ROI
Sean Strickland weighted 2.88 Market 5.87 Crowd 2.76
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Sean Strickland vs Israel Adesanya 0.77x ROI
Israel Adesanya weighted 1.53 Market 1.14 Crowd 1.57
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Kevin Jousset vs Kiefer Crosbie 0.84x ROI
Kiefer Crosbie weighted 3.8 Market 2.36 Crowd 3.54
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Chepe Mariscal vs Jack Jenkins 0.85x ROI
Chepe Mariscal weighted 4.7 Market 2.78 Crowd 4.6
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 83.3%
Pure crowd 83.3%
Market favourite 58.3%

Sean Strickland vs Israel Adesanya

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 455.01
ROI Momentum 3.25
Underdog Specialist 9.1
Favorite Reliability 184.24
Weight-Class Ace 38.28
Regional Familiarity 120.15
Value Pick Signal 135.8
Sample Size Confidence 375.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.