Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Sep 16, 2023 Past 18,766 766 Total Weight 1541.656
Channels Engaged
81
Predictions Logged
591
Value Picks Flagged
179
Fight Slots
11
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 591 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 81 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 179 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 2.67 Terrence Mitchell ROI 1.22x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Raul Rosas Jr. vs Terrence Mitchell 1.22x ROI
Terrence Mitchell weighted 2.67 Market 6.25 Crowd 2.45
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Roman Kopylov vs Josh Fremd 1.13x ROI
Roman Kopylov weighted 1.1 Market 1.29 Crowd 1.1
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Raul Rosas Jr. vs Terrence Mitchell 0.74x ROI
Raul Rosas Jr. weighted 1.6 Market 1.13 Crowd 1.69
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Roman Kopylov vs Josh Fremd 0.81x ROI
Josh Fremd weighted 10.66 Market 3.53 Crowd 11.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Alexa Grasso vs Valentina Shevchenko 0.86x ROI
Valentina Shevchenko weighted 2.03 Market 1.58 Crowd 2.23
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 9
Weighted model 88.9%
Pure crowd 77.8%
Market favourite 88.9%

Alexa Grasso vs Valentina Shevchenko

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 341.96
ROI Momentum 1.78
Underdog Specialist -1.03
Favorite Reliability 134.58
Weight-Class Ace 28.81
Regional Familiarity 65.55
Value Pick Signal 95.2
Sample Size Confidence 283.8

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.