Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Sep 16, 2023 Past 18,766 766 Total Weight 1601.61
Channels Engaged
89
Predictions Logged
609
Value Picks Flagged
189
Fight Slots
11
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 609 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 89 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 189 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 2.36 Terrence Mitchell ROI 1.26x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Raul Rosas Jr. vs Terrence Mitchell 1.26x ROI
Terrence Mitchell weighted 2.36 Market 6.25 Crowd 2.14
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Roman Kopylov vs Josh Fremd 1.14x ROI
Roman Kopylov weighted 1.1 Market 1.29 Crowd 1.1
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Raul Rosas Jr. vs Terrence Mitchell 0.69x ROI
Raul Rosas Jr. weighted 1.73 Market 1.13 Crowd 1.88
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Roman Kopylov vs Josh Fremd 0.8x ROI
Josh Fremd weighted 11.48 Market 3.53 Crowd 11.5
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Alexa Grasso vs Valentina Shevchenko 0.87x ROI
Valentina Shevchenko weighted 1.99 Market 1.58 Crowd 2.19
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 9
Weighted model 66.7%
Pure crowd 66.7%
Market favourite 88.9%

Alexa Grasso vs Valentina Shevchenko

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 359.86
ROI Momentum -1.67
Underdog Specialist -0.44
Favorite Reliability 140.56
Weight-Class Ace 29.7
Regional Familiarity 67.2
Value Pick Signal 98.0
Sample Size Confidence 299.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.