Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Sep 23, 2023 Past Total Weight 1813.914
Channels Engaged
111
Predictions Logged
782
Value Picks Flagged
216
Fight Slots
11
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 782 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 111 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 216 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.27 Mohammed Usman ROI 1.21x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Mohammed Usman vs Jake Collier 1.21x ROI
Mohammed Usman weighted 1.27 Market 1.73 Crowd 1.3
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Mizuki Inoue vs Hannah Goldy 1.12x ROI
Mizuki Inoue weighted 1.11 Market 1.29 Crowd 1.12
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Mohammed Usman vs Jake Collier 0.75x ROI
Jake Collier weighted 4.67 Market 2.14 Crowd 4.3
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Mizuki Inoue vs Hannah Goldy 0.82x ROI
Hannah Goldy weighted 9.88 Market 3.59 Crowd 9.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Dan Argueta vs Miles Johns 0.88x ROI
Miles Johns weighted 3.53 Market 2.49 Crowd 3.09
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 10
Weighted model 60.0%
Pure crowd 70.0%
Market favourite 60.0%

Mateusz Gamrot vs Rafael Fiziev

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 390.96
ROI Momentum -0.36
Underdog Specialist 8.72
Favorite Reliability 167.27
Weight-Class Ace 26.41
Value Pick Signal 115.5
Sample Size Confidence 323.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.