Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Nov 04, 2023 Past São Paulo , Brazil Brazil Total Weight 1538.642
Channels Engaged
94
Predictions Logged
628
Value Picks Flagged
205
Fight Slots
10
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 628 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 94 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 205 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 2.56 Nicolas Dalby ROI 1.2x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Nicolas Dalby vs Gabriel Bonfim 1.2x ROI
Nicolas Dalby weighted 2.56 Market 5.21 Crowd 2.43
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Rodrigo Nascimento vs Don'Tale Mayes 1.17x ROI
Rodrigo Nascimento weighted 1.21 Market 1.51 Crowd 1.24
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Nicolas Dalby vs Gabriel Bonfim 0.75x ROI
Gabriel Bonfim weighted 1.64 Market 1.17 Crowd 1.7
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Rodrigo Nascimento vs Don'Tale Mayes 0.79x ROI
Don'Tale Mayes weighted 5.78 Market 2.61 Crowd 5.14
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Marc Diakiese vs Kauê Fernandes 0.87x ROI
Marc Diakiese weighted 1.91 Market 1.52 Crowd 2.05
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 9
Weighted model 77.8%
Pure crowd 77.8%
Market favourite 77.8%

Jailton Almeida vs Derrick Lewis

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 317.96
ROI Momentum -1.06
Underdog Specialist 4.58
Favorite Reliability 125.29
Weight-Class Ace 20.23
Regional Familiarity 68.85
Value Pick Signal 112.0
Sample Size Confidence 262.8

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.