Event Selector

UFC 295: Procházka vs. Pereira

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Nov 11, 2023 Past New York City, New York , U.S. U S Total Weight 2301.656
Channels Engaged
139
Predictions Logged
996
Value Picks Flagged
317
Fight Slots
13
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 996 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 139 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 317 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 4.64 Kevin Borjas ROI 1.15x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Joshua Van vs Kevin Borjas 1.15x ROI
Kevin Borjas weighted 4.64 Market 14.66 Crowd 4.7
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Joshua Van vs Kevin Borjas 0.79x ROI
Joshua Van weighted 1.27 Market 1.01 Crowd 1.27
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Jared Gordon vs Mark Madsen 0.86x ROI
Mark Madsen weighted 4.23 Market 2.68 Crowd 3.77
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Jamall Emmers vs Dennis Buzukja 0.87x ROI
Dennis Buzukja weighted 5.1 Market 3.03 Crowd 5.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 91.7%
Pure crowd 91.7%
Market favourite 58.3%

Alex Pereira vs Jiří Procházka

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 447.13
ROI Momentum 6.37
Underdog Specialist 7.21
Favorite Reliability 181.44
Weight-Class Ace 39.65
Regional Familiarity 105.6
Value Pick Signal 148.05
Sample Size Confidence 370.2

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.