Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Nov 18, 2023 Past Las Vegas, Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 1719.823
Channels Engaged
77
Predictions Logged
685
Value Picks Flagged
175
Fight Slots
14
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 685 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 77 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 175 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.3 Uroš Medić ROI 1.26x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Myktybek Orolbai vs Uroš Medić 1.26x ROI
Uroš Medić weighted 1.3 Market 1.97 Crowd 1.31
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Myktybek Orolbai vs Uroš Medić 0.69x ROI
Myktybek Orolbai weighted 4.36 Market 1.86 Crowd 4.25
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Chase Hooper vs Jordan Leavitt 0.8x ROI
Chase Hooper weighted 2.1 Market 1.47 Crowd 2.22
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Joanderson Brito vs Jonathan Pearce 0.8x ROI
Jonathan Pearce weighted 2.68 Market 1.75 Crowd 3.11
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 13
Weighted model 76.9%
Pure crowd 76.9%
Market favourite 84.6%

Brendan Allen vs Paul Craig

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 366.44
ROI Momentum 3.2
Underdog Specialist 5.25
Favorite Reliability 152.34
Weight-Class Ace 32.94
Regional Familiarity 76.35
Value Pick Signal 95.9
Sample Size Confidence 302.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.