Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutiérrez

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Dec 09, 2023 Past — — Total Weight 1309.064
Channels Engaged
63
Predictions Logged
525
Value Picks Flagged
128
Fight Slots
11
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 525 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 63 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 128 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.46 Tim Elliott ROI 1.08x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Tim Elliott vs Su Mudaerji 1.08x ROI
Tim Elliott weighted 1.46 Market 1.64 Crowd 1.53
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Tim Elliott vs Su Mudaerji 0.87x ROI
Su Mudaerji weighted 3.19 Market 2.24 Crowd 2.89
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Talita Alencar vs Rayanne dos Santos 0.89x ROI
Talita Alencar weighted 3.06 Market 2.3 Crowd 2.78
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Tatsuro Taira vs Carlos Hernandez 0.9x ROI
Tatsuro Taira weighted 1.32 Market 1.17 Crowd 1.38
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 11
Weighted model 72.7%
Pure crowd 72.7%
Market favourite 54.5%

Song Yadong vs Chris Gutiérrez

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 288.36
ROI Momentum -1.75
Underdog Specialist -0.86
Favorite Reliability 98.94
Weight-Class Ace 28.33
Regional Familiarity 58.05
Value Pick Signal 74.2
Sample Size Confidence 238.8

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.