Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Jan 13, 2024 Past Las Vegas, Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 1676.139
Channels Engaged
81
Predictions Logged
671
Value Picks Flagged
188
Fight Slots
11
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 671 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 81 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 188 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 2.32 Matthew Semelsberger ROI 1.33x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Preston Parsons vs Matthew Semelsberger 1.33x ROI
Matthew Semelsberger weighted 2.32 Market 9.81 Crowd 2.15
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Joshua Van vs Felipe Bunes 1.14x ROI
Joshua Van weighted 1.15 Market 1.37 Crowd 1.16
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Preston Parsons vs Matthew Semelsberger 0.62x ROI
Preston Parsons weighted 1.76 Market 1.05 Crowd 1.87
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 4
Joshua Van vs Felipe Bunes 0.81x ROI
Felipe Bunes weighted 7.65 Market 3.11 Crowd 7.2
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Nikolas Motta vs Tom Nolan 0.88x ROI
Tom Nolan weighted 1.51 Market 1.28 Crowd 1.55
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 11
Weighted model 81.8%
Pure crowd 81.8%
Market favourite 81.8%

Magomed Ankalaev vs Johnny Walker

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 353.97
ROI Momentum -3.73
Underdog Specialist 0.35
Favorite Reliability 153.25
Weight-Class Ace 35.86
Regional Familiarity 70.05
Value Pick Signal 100.8
Sample Size Confidence 294.6

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.