Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Feb 03, 2024 Past Total Weight 2068.691
Channels Engaged
106
Predictions Logged
948
Value Picks Flagged
237
Fight Slots
13
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 948 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 106 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 237 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.26 Aliaskhab Khizriev ROI 1.18x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Aliaskhab Khizriev vs Makhmud Muradov 1.18x ROI
Aliaskhab Khizriev weighted 1.26 Market 1.64 Crowd 1.29
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Marquel Mederos vs Landon Quiñones 1.14x ROI
Marquel Mederos weighted 1.38 Market 1.73 Crowd 1.48
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Aliaskhab Khizriev vs Makhmud Muradov 0.77x ROI
Makhmud Muradov weighted 4.84 Market 2.28 Crowd 4.5
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Marquel Mederos vs Landon Quiñones 0.8x ROI
Landon Quiñones weighted 3.62 Market 2.11 Crowd 3.08
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Luana Carolina vs Julija Stoliarenko 0.8x ROI
Julija Stoliarenko weighted 2.45 Market 1.65 Crowd 2.77
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 66.7%
Pure crowd 66.7%
Market favourite 58.3%

Molly McCann vs Diana Belbiţă

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 441.76
ROI Momentum -4.91
Underdog Specialist -5.45
Favorite Reliability 156.98
Weight-Class Ace 43.66
Value Pick Signal 121.45
Sample Size Confidence 367.2

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.