Event Selector

UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Feb 17, 2024 Past Anaheim, California , U.S. U S Total Weight 2781.531
Channels Engaged
197
Predictions Logged
1275
Value Picks Flagged
334
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 1275 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 197 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 334 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.47 Zhang Mingyang ROI 1.13x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Zhang Mingyang vs Brendson Ribeiro 1.13x ROI
Zhang Mingyang weighted 1.47 Market 1.83 Crowd 1.47
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Amanda Lemos vs Mackenzie Dern 1.13x ROI
Amanda Lemos weighted 1.39 Market 1.69 Crowd 1.47
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Zhang Mingyang vs Brendson Ribeiro 0.81x ROI
Brendson Ribeiro weighted 3.15 Market 1.99 Crowd 3.11
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Amanda Lemos vs Mackenzie Dern 0.82x ROI
Mackenzie Dern weighted 3.57 Market 2.17 Crowd 3.12
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Danny Barlow vs Josh Quinlan 0.86x ROI
Josh Quinlan weighted 4.01 Market 2.58 Crowd 3.45
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 91.7%
Pure crowd 91.7%
Market favourite 75.0%

Ilia Topuria vs Alexander Volkanovski

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 545.58
ROI Momentum -6.46
Underdog Specialist 0.45
Favorite Reliability 176.69
Weight-Class Ace 27.71
Regional Familiarity 121.65
Value Pick Signal 185.5
Sample Size Confidence 455.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.