Event Selector

UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Mar 09, 2024 Past Miami, Florida , U.S. U S Total Weight 2139.477
Channels Engaged
113
Predictions Logged
946
Value Picks Flagged
276
Fight Slots
14
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 946 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 113 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 276 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.27 Michel Pereira ROI 1.19x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Michel Pereira vs Michał Oleksiejczuk 1.19x ROI
Michel Pereira weighted 1.27 Market 1.67 Crowd 1.31
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Michel Pereira vs Michał Oleksiejczuk 0.76x ROI
Michał Oleksiejczuk weighted 4.65 Market 2.2 Crowd 4.2
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Robelis Despaigne vs Josh Parisian 0.82x ROI
Robelis Despaigne weighted 1.65 Market 1.27 Crowd 1.62
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Mateusz Gamrot vs Rafael dos Anjos 0.83x ROI
Rafael dos Anjos weighted 18.03 Market 4.44 Crowd 16.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 14
Weighted model 78.6%
Pure crowd 78.6%
Market favourite 57.1%

Sean O'Malley vs Marlon Vera

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 422.36
ROI Momentum -2.83
Underdog Specialist -2.3
Favorite Reliability 149.34
Weight-Class Ace 31.9
Regional Familiarity 98.4
Value Pick Signal 145.6
Sample Size Confidence 351.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.