Event Selector

UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Mar 09, 2024 Past Miami, Florida , U.S. U S Total Weight 2340.856
Channels Engaged
132
Predictions Logged
1032
Value Picks Flagged
313
Fight Slots
14
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 1032 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 132 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 313 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.3 Michel Pereira ROI 1.17x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Michel Pereira vs Michał Oleksiejczuk 1.17x ROI
Michel Pereira weighted 1.3 Market 1.67 Crowd 1.39
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Michel Pereira vs Michał Oleksiejczuk 0.78x ROI
Michał Oleksiejczuk weighted 4.29 Market 2.2 Crowd 3.57
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Dustin Poirier vs Benoît Saint Denis 0.82x ROI
Benoît Saint Denis weighted 1.96 Market 1.46 Crowd 2.23
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Curtis Blaydes vs Jailton Almeida 0.84x ROI
Jailton Almeida weighted 2.41 Market 1.74 Crowd 2.62
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 14
Weighted model 78.6%
Pure crowd 85.7%
Market favourite 57.1%

Sean O'Malley vs Marlon Vera

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 462.03
ROI Momentum -3.26
Underdog Specialist 0.06
Favorite Reliability 163.38
Weight-Class Ace 35.45
Regional Familiarity 106.65
Value Pick Signal 159.95
Sample Size Confidence 384.6

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.