Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Ribas vs. Namajunas

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Mar 23, 2024 Past Las Vegas, Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 2198.937
Channels Engaged
107
Predictions Logged
883
Value Picks Flagged
277
Fight Slots
13
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 883 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 107 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 277 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.27 Steven Nguyen ROI 1.16x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Jarno Errens vs Steven Nguyen 1.16x ROI
Steven Nguyen weighted 1.27 Market 1.59 Crowd 1.28
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Miles Johns vs Cody Gibson 1.12x ROI
Cody Gibson weighted 1.73 Market 2.19 Crowd 1.68
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Jarno Errens vs Steven Nguyen 0.79x ROI
Jarno Errens weighted 4.73 Market 2.35 Crowd 4.57
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Miles Johns vs Cody Gibson 0.83x ROI
Miles Johns weighted 2.37 Market 1.68 Crowd 2.47
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Youssef Zalal vs Billy Quarantillo 0.84x ROI
Youssef Zalal weighted 2.48 Market 1.76 Crowd 2.6
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 13
Weighted model 69.2%
Pure crowd 69.2%
Market favourite 76.9%

Rose Namajunas vs Amanda Ribas

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 492.23
ROI Momentum -9.51
Underdog Specialist 0.81
Favorite Reliability 163.82
Weight-Class Ace 28.74
Regional Familiarity 100.2
Value Pick Signal 129.85
Sample Size Confidence 409.8

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.