Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Ribas vs. Namajunas

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Mar 23, 2024 Past Las Vegas, Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 2101.587
Channels Engaged
99
Predictions Logged
846
Value Picks Flagged
254
Fight Slots
13
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 846 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 99 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 254 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.29 Steven Nguyen ROI 1.15x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Jarno Errens vs Steven Nguyen 1.15x ROI
Steven Nguyen weighted 1.29 Market 1.59 Crowd 1.29
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Miles Johns vs Cody Gibson 1.13x ROI
Cody Gibson weighted 1.7 Market 2.19 Crowd 1.7
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Jarno Errens vs Steven Nguyen 0.8x ROI
Jarno Errens weighted 4.48 Market 2.35 Crowd 4.43
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Miles Johns vs Cody Gibson 0.82x ROI
Miles Johns weighted 2.42 Market 1.68 Crowd 2.44
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Youssef Zalal vs Billy Quarantillo 0.85x ROI
Youssef Zalal weighted 2.42 Market 1.76 Crowd 2.55
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 13
Weighted model 69.2%
Pure crowd 69.2%
Market favourite 76.9%

Rose Namajunas vs Amanda Ribas

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 468.82
ROI Momentum -3.78
Underdog Specialist 4.1
Favorite Reliability 156.08
Weight-Class Ace 25.67
Regional Familiarity 94.8
Value Pick Signal 121.1
Sample Size Confidence 388.8

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.