Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Mar 30, 2024 Past Atlantic City, New Jersey , U.S. U S Total Weight 2219.918
Channels Engaged
117
Predictions Logged
961
Value Picks Flagged
313
Fight Slots
13
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 961 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 117 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 313 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.25 Nursulton Ruziboev ROI 1.11x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Nursulton Ruziboev vs Sedriques Dumas 1.11x ROI
Nursulton Ruziboev weighted 1.25 Market 1.45 Crowd 1.31
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Nursulton Ruziboev vs Sedriques Dumas 0.83x ROI
Sedriques Dumas weighted 5.04 Market 2.68 Crowd 4.25
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Ibo Aslan vs Anton Turkalj 0.86x ROI
Anton Turkalj weighted 2.87 Market 2.06 Crowd 2.4
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Joaquin Buckley vs Vicente Luque 0.86x ROI
Vicente Luque weighted 2.44 Market 1.83 Crowd 2.3
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 13
Weighted model 61.5%
Pure crowd 61.5%
Market favourite 53.8%

Manon Fiorot vs Erin Blanchfield

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 439.44
ROI Momentum -2.88
Underdog Specialist 10.5
Favorite Reliability 182.56
Weight-Class Ace 21.69
Regional Familiarity 89.25
Value Pick Signal 152.95
Sample Size Confidence 365.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.