Event Selector

UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Apr 13, 2024 Past 20,067 067 Total Weight 3357.184
Channels Engaged
172
Predictions Logged
1518
Value Picks Flagged
337
Fight Slots
13
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 1518 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 172 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 337 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.69 Max Holloway ROI 1.15x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Max Holloway vs Justin Gaethje 1.15x ROI
Max Holloway weighted 1.69 Market 2.27 Crowd 1.67
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Max Holloway vs Justin Gaethje 0.78x ROI
Justin Gaethje weighted 2.44 Market 1.59 Crowd 2.5
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Arman Tsarukyan vs Charles Oliveira 0.81x ROI
Arman Tsarukyan weighted 2.0 Market 1.46 Crowd 2.14
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Diego Lopes vs Sodiq Yusuff 0.82x ROI
Sodiq Yusuff weighted 3.61 Market 2.2 Crowd 3.13
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 13
Weighted model 84.6%
Pure crowd 76.9%
Market favourite 76.9%

Alex Pereira vs Jamahal Hill

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 643.01
ROI Momentum -8.45
Underdog Specialist -1.89
Favorite Reliability 229.15
Weight-Class Ace 91.77
Regional Familiarity 160.5
Value Pick Signal 191.1
Sample Size Confidence 534.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.